It’s a simple, painless, satisfying process: contributions to MFO are mostly tax-deductible (our attorney says I must repeat the phrase, “consult your tax adviser”) because we’re incorporated as a 501(3)c charity.We’re also an efficient 501(c)3 since our fund-raising costs are, well, zero.It’s possible for bull markets to end, not with a bang but with a whimper.
That’s certainly in the range of what GMO, a famously stubborn institutional investment house in Boston, thinks that valuations will support: US stocks are priced to decline by 1-2% annually through the middle of the next decade. Treasury secretary mulling the option of issuing 100-year bonds to book in low debt costs and the Fed beginning to raise rates, the years of robust domestic bond gains might be behind us. We might finally have achieved Irving Fischer’s “permanently high plateau,” first discerned in September 1929, for the financial markets.
The argument for slow decline is simple: people are so disgusted by the stock market that they’re not looking for big gains anymore, they’re simply hopeful of avoiding disasters. At the same time, the bull market in US bonds is now in its 35 year. President Trump’s first proposed budget, predicated on 4% annual economic growth, suggests that we are. Our suggestion, now as always, is this: (1) know the risks you’re taking and (2) don’t put any more money at risk than you can bear to lose.
) and seven in February (off-target but that’s my fault; I was so embarrassed by our need to publish several days late that I didn’t raise the topic) and 18 more in March.
I promised folks monthly updates on our progress so here ‘tis: we’re hoping to add 20 supporters (out of 25,000 readers) a month. MFO Premium portal Thanks to Ed Mayer, a long-time supporter, and to Jack, Steven, the estimable Dan Wiener, Jim, Richard, and more Davids than you can shake a stick at.
A number of very fine investors – including the folks from Centerstone, Evermore, FPA, Intrepid and Moerus – have agreed to spend some time talking with us.
Separately, we’ll have a chance to chat this month with Laura Geritz, now the head of Rondure Global Advisors.That’s the game played by my local paper, the , and at least one in New York.I’ve reached out to the publisher, executive editor, sales department and CFO and have asked each the same question, “why isn’t this a breach of contract?You offered a 52-week subscription, I accepted the offer and gave you money, and now you’re reneging.” So far, no one at the paper has chosen to respond. Those of our readers who are paying for local paper subscriptions might want to check any correspondence or change in billing information. Ed, Charles and I will be at, or in the near vicinity of, the Morningstar Investment Conference again this year.The conference convenes on April 26 and runs through April 28.) and entered the season (and the tournament) with an unranked bunch of youngsters.